ITC: The Military in a National, Democractic Iran

Discussions centred on the transition away from the theocratic regime.
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omid
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ITC: The Military in a National, Democractic Iran

Post by omid »

In what seems to be the first of Iran Transition Council's (ITC) videos shedding light on its progress, there is an interview on the role of the military, in a new, democratic Iran:


Of particular note is his emphasis that the current military should, unsurprisingly, not be expected to overthrow the regime. Instead, it should provide _support_ for popular protests.
As with protests in general, I see a distributed approach as being essential. While there will be the odd army-units, here and there, that choose to dissent, there will initially be no coordination among such units; later, as downfall becomes imminent, they will join together, but not in the most difficult, initial stages. There will be no central command, so to speak. As such, mechanisms have to be devised, based on historical precedents/observation, to facilitate disparate units and individuals to surreptitiously support the protests.

The ex-IRGC member, Sajaad Hagh-Panaah ought to be consulted in this regard, as should other defectors, and dissenters within the regime's forces.

omid
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Re: ITC: The Military in a National, Democractic Iran

Post by omid »

Of particular note is Mr Sajaad Hagh-Panaah warning (which might have been in another Manoto video, not the one I linked-to, above,) that the regime's forces are prepared for a post-overthrow resistance campaign. They have locations prepared for their cells, he emphasized.
Add this to the fact that at least 7% of the populace is said to support the regime, and we may well have a Baathist-style campaign of terror and bombings, for a while, after the overthrow. These people consider Iran and Iranians to be merely a means for their Messianic vision; they won't spare anyone, just as they have not, for forty years!
Though it may turn out to be very different, ITC ought, none the less, prepare for such a scenario.

omid
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Mandatory Draft?

Post by omid »

Will there be mandatory military service?
I expect that this can be re-assessed once proper elections and a parliament form.

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Decentralization of Power

Post by omid »

We all recall how the military fell apart once the Shah left. While we would not want the military to be a parallel centre of power, nor should it be vulnerable to dissolution if a president/monarch falls. The Western democracies are a good model to follow.

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